Africa

South Africa fuel cover monitor

South Africa still shows usable headline cover, but the disruption-adjusted estimate compresses quickly once import stress is applied.

16.0 daysPetrol days left
13.5 daysOverall fuel cover
9.6 daysDisruption-adjusted cover

Last verified 3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM. Snapshot generated 3/20/2026, 4:10:09 PM.

Warnings

  • 6 layers are still low-confidence because the live figure is inferred rather than directly reported.
  • Modeled disruption-adjusted cover falls below two weeks.

Key signals

  • Petrol cover is 16 days with a media badge.
  • LNG is the thinnest primary layer at 7 days.
  • PETROL moved -4 days week on week.

Current view

Current days left by fuel type

Each figure jumps to the live claim card for that fuel layer.

Recent verified changes

  • LPG moved to 10.0 days5.0 days week on week · source date 2026-03-15

    South Africa LPG cover moved 5 days week on week.

  • Diesel moved to 19.0 days4.0 days week on week · source date 2026-03-15

    South Africa DIESEL cover moved 4 days week on week.

  • Jet fuel moved to 13.0 days4.0 days week on week · source date 2026-03-15

    South Africa JET cover moved 4 days week on week.

  • Crude moved to 26.0 days4.0 days week on week · source date 2026-03-15

    South Africa CRUDE cover moved 4 days week on week.

  • Petrol moved to 16.0 days3.0 days week on week · source date 2026-03-15

    South Africa PETROL cover moved 3 days week on week.

  • LNG moved to 7.0 days6.0 days week on week · source date 2026-03-14

    South Africa LNG cover moved 6 days week on week.

Methodology for this country page

Reserves Monitor never treats the article publish date as the stock measurement date. Each live claim stores a separate source date, extraction time, and last checked time.

The public confidence score is deterministic. It is reduced for non-official sources, inferred calculations, on-water or mixed stock scope, and stale source windows.

Read the source ranking and validation policy

Evidence trail

Live source cards

Official sources rank first. Media or modelled values are labeled explicitly.

  • Petrol
    Media16.0 days
    Open source

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

    Source titleFuel supply and refinery status brief
    PublisherEngineering News
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:45:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationreporting extracted
    Confidence57/100 · low

    Snippet: Product availability remains tight.

    • No official day-cover figure found for the same measurement window.
    • Publisher passed the editorial ranking threshold.
    • Days-of-cover figure cross-checked against at least one secondary signal.
  • Diesel
    Media19.0 days
    Open source

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

    Source titleFuel supply and refinery status brief
    PublisherEngineering News
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:45:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationreporting extracted
    Confidence57/100 · low

    Snippet: Product availability remains tight.

    • No official day-cover figure found for the same measurement window.
    • Publisher passed the editorial ranking threshold.
    • Days-of-cover figure cross-checked against at least one secondary signal.
  • Jet fuel
    Media13.0 days
    Open source

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

    Source titleFuel supply and refinery status brief
    PublisherEngineering News
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:45:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationreporting extracted
    Confidence57/100 · low

    Snippet: Product availability remains tight.

    • No official day-cover figure found for the same measurement window.
    • Publisher passed the editorial ranking threshold.
    • Days-of-cover figure cross-checked against at least one secondary signal.
  • LPG
    Media10.0 days
    Open source

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

    Source titleFuel supply and refinery status brief
    PublisherEngineering News
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:45:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationreporting extracted
    Confidence57/100 · low

    Snippet: Product availability remains tight.

    • No official day-cover figure found for the same measurement window.
    • Publisher passed the editorial ranking threshold.
    • Days-of-cover figure cross-checked against at least one secondary signal.
  • LNG
    Estimated7.0 days
    Open source

    No direct days-cover release is available, so LNG-equivalent cover is estimated from storage, imports, and recent burn.

    Source titleGas availability and import position
    PublisherDepartment of Mineral Resources and Energy
    Source date2026-03-14
    Published date3/15/2026, 8:00:00 AM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:48:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationinferred modelled
    Confidence38/100 · low

    Snippet: Gas data remains sparse.

    • No direct stock-days figure published by an official source.
    • Estimate derived from inventories, runs, or import cadence with explicit caveats.
    • Flagged for monitoring until a fresher direct source appears.
  • Crude
    Media26.0 days
    Open source

    Estimates crude cover from terminal balances and expected arrivals because official crude cover is not published in a timely way.

    Source titleCrude supply and terminal balance note
    PublisherEngineering News
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:50:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationreporting extracted
    Confidence59/100 · low

    Snippet: Feedstock stocks remain thin.

    • No official day-cover figure found for the same measurement window.
    • Publisher passed the editorial ranking threshold.
    • Days-of-cover figure cross-checked against at least one secondary signal.
  • Helium
    Model12.0 days
    Open source

    Helium cover is carried as a clearly labeled modelled reserve layer. It is maintained separately from core fuel-cover layers and is not blended into the overall fuel metric.

    Source titleReserves Monitor helium reserve model
    PublisherReserves Monitor
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:50:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationinferred modelled
    Confidence38/100 · low

    Snippet: Helium reserve cover is shown as a clearly labeled modelled layer.

    • Derived only from live approved country fuel claims.
    • Underlying source dates and badges are preserved on each component layer.
    • Modelled layer is clearly labeled and linked to methodology.
  • Overall fuel cover
    Model13.5 days
    Open source

    Weighted composite of petrol, diesel, jet, LPG, and LNG live claims. Crude is shown separately and is not blended into the public overall-fuel number.

    Source titleReserves Monitor weighted fuel-cover methodology
    PublisherReserves Monitor
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:50:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationinferred modelled
    Confidence48/100 · low

    Snippet: Composite cover uses weighted live fuel layers.

    • Derived only from live approved country fuel claims.
    • Underlying source dates and badges are preserved on each component layer.
    • Modelled layer is clearly labeled and linked to methodology.
  • Disruption-adjusted cover
    Model9.6 days
    Open source

    Applies the country import-stress penalty to the weighted overall-fuel layer. This is explicitly modelled and does not replace directly sourced fuel layers.

    Source titleReserves Monitor disruption-adjusted cover model
    PublisherReserves Monitor
    Source date2026-03-15
    Published date3/15/2026, 5:30:00 PM
    Extracted date3/21/2026, 12:50:00 AM
    Last checked3/21/2026, 9:10:00 AM
    Classificationinferred modelled
    Confidence40/100 · low

    Snippet: Import reliance discounts the overall cover estimate.

    • Derived only from live approved country fuel claims.
    • Underlying source dates and badges are preserved on each component layer.
    • Modelled layer is clearly labeled and linked to methodology.

Archive

Superseded claim history

Older approved claims stay archived instead of being silently overwritten.

  • Petrol previously sat at 13.0 daysSource date 2026-03-08 · Media · superseded by zaf petrol live

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

  • Diesel previously sat at 15.0 daysSource date 2026-03-08 · Media · superseded by zaf diesel live

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

  • Jet fuel previously sat at 9.0 daysSource date 2026-03-08 · Media · superseded by zaf jet live

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

  • LPG previously sat at 5.0 daysSource date 2026-03-08 · Media · superseded by zaf lpg live

    Uses refinery outage reporting, import arrivals, and stock commentary to estimate fuel cover by product.

  • LNG previously sat at 1.0 daysSource date 2026-03-07 · Estimated · superseded by zaf lng live

    No direct days-cover release is available, so LNG-equivalent cover is estimated from storage, imports, and recent burn.

  • Crude previously sat at 22.0 daysSource date 2026-03-08 · Media · superseded by zaf crude live

    Estimates crude cover from terminal balances and expected arrivals because official crude cover is not published in a timely way.